The truth about the New Hampshire primaries has less to do with the pundits' predictions than with the third place finishers in each case.
Hillary's numbers haven't changed nationwide, and months ago Dick Morris pointed out that she has her core constituency, and her national numbers don't move up or down much of all. People know her and they've made up their minds despite her crocodile tears and Bill's role as whipping boy. (Give ME a break).
Her "landslide" was about two points. The polls didn't take into account the 17% that clueless Edwards gleaned. When he finally leaves the race, where will those 17% go? It won't be to Hillary. They'll be Obama votes, and that makes a big difference.
On the Republican side, McCain did very well. He talks big about security, and that grabs voters. But people have yet to be reminded of his immigration/amnesty (despite his denial) junk in league with the most liberal ideologues in Congress. Third place Mike Huckabee did not have the evangelical backing he needed to win in Iowa. Where will his votes go? I don't see them going to McCain. As the race gets tighter, the gloves will come off and the brass knuckles will come out. Guiliani has yet to really make his move, and if he hangs in there until Florida, American security will be a much bigger issue.
As Arte Johnson used to say, "Verrry interesting."
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